Predictions about the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Who do you all, particularly you American USMers, think will win the United States Presidential Election of 2024? President Biden? Donald Trump? N/A for the foreseeable next few months? Lol. It really is hard to say. Despite all the right-wing polling on commercial media outlets and websites, I genuinely believe Joe Biden has a much better shot at re-election than anticipated. By a long shot.

Will Donald Trump get another term? I dunno. I hope not. I doubt it. He may actually be in the clinker over the course of next year. Over the past couple years, I would have been extremely skeptical that we would have even got a mugshot at this point. I've been weirdly optimistic since last spring or maybe even latter 2022 that Trump would eventually be held accountable for his bull (clearly, I am not a Trump fan. That's my bias kicking in. Oh, well). Even if he's not in prison by the end of next summer, I think he'll still have way too many legal entanglements to have another White House run on his mind. For now, I'm borderline ruling out the notion that Trump makes another presidential run--and succeeds. Even a small number of Republicans trying to ditch the MAGA Train are slowly gaining steam. No matter how you slice and dice their motives, the GOP seems guardedly coming to the conclusion that Trump is a liability and not the asset they once proclaimed.

Next on the list...not as high as the first two aforementioned politicos, I'd say. But still pretty high. A third wheel with untapped (and unwanted) potential). Ron DeSantis. Over the past year or so, Republicans seemed to have adored the man. There are still many Republicans who do. But the feud with Disney, as well as the subsequent dip in tourism revenue, are definitely taking toll, it would seem. Ron DeSantis' 'anti-woke' rhetoric, attacks on trans people, and particularly the revisionism pertaining to rationalizing slavery are enough to distance some mainstream conservatives; while garnering a small portion of far-right fascist types (neo-Nazis have held small but noticeable demonstrations in Florida, including right outside Disney World. Yes, there are DeSantis 2024 signs among them). If I were as horrible a human being as that, I'd probably want somebody as horrible as DeSantis to represent me as well. Anyway, there are even travel advisory warnings to LGBT people about the state of Florida. I'm all for watching the Trump Train come to a screeching halt. But if it's at the expense of DeSantis usurp the brunt of Trump's popularity, I think I will be okay with another Trump-Biden re-hash. Part of me thinks DeSantis will not get nearly as far in the presidential run as I once feared. I don't vote along party lines anymore, so much as I do an attempt to protect the marginalized, including some people I care about.

Inflation is also an issue that would certainly dog DeSantis on the campaign trail. It's easy to put the blame on Joe Biden for this country's frequently overpriced bs problem. While I think a great deal of it is simply corporate price-gouging, say what you will about Biden and inflation. We're still in some of that muck. However, inflation is still an ongoing problem the world over, altogether. It's not limited to the United States. And if I were DeSantis, I would refrain from talking about it on the debate stage. In some metro areas of Florida--Orlando, Miami, etc., the inflation rate is twice the national average. That says a lot. You couple that with the fact the state is struggling in some areas financially, even and particularly with the tourist revenue, you're gonna have some problems overtime. Ron DeSantis has the potential to have a prosperous primary campaign, and have it all go down in flames during the general election. And frankly, I'm good with that.



I don't think Florida will go Blue in 2024. I don't even know if my state, Virginia, will go Blue in 2024. President Obama won Virginia twice. I was surprised that Hillary and Biden managed to. We have a Republican Governor elected from 2021 elections who's still a little above a 50% approval rating. Granted, the state still helped re-elect Obama 3 years after electing GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell. So, the back-and-forth possibilities have happened before. Back to Florida, I think DeSantis' popularity will still remain above water through next year and probably some of 2025, presidential aspirations or not. Now, how will Ron DeSantis be portrayed in 2026 and so on is extremely hard to tell. I don't think he'll be popular at that point. It won't really matter, because Florida term limits restrict sitting governors from running for a third consecutive term after two four-year terms straight, a lot like the presidency. He got elected in 2018 and again in 2022. By the time DeSantis' popularity sinks low enough, he'll be in sight of retirement. I think between 2026 and 2028, Florida will likely turn Blue again; for some reasons pertaining to DeSantis and for other reasons problems that preceded the state well before DeSantis even came into the picture. Florida is still gradually sinking underwater. It may come at the expense of waiting for the worst possible things in sight to happen, but Florida will eventually turn away from the GOP again.

In conclusion, I think Biden will get re-elected, if even barely. While I certainly wish for someone younger, I don't think age is going to be that big an issue. He's been at the helm of power for a while, and we've all gotten this far. Things may improve over the next several months. I'm not a fan of Biden, personally. But I'll support him again, particularly if his opponent is the likes of Ron DeSantis. Many Dems have expressed concern about Biden's age, but in this case, I don't think it's that worrisome. If they run someone else next spring, do it. But don't try to distance yourself from Biden in the process. The federal budget deficit is in rapid decline. Come a year or two after a Biden re-election, the nation could see surpluses again for the first time since 2000 and 2001. The economy doesn't have to have them to thrive, but it can certainly help. Most people through the brunt of the late 1990s and 2000 seemed like they were doing alright. But if you want to give any thoughts here, feel free to share them.

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